A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
